“Humanity faces a very dangerous threat. Fuelled by two powerful, human-induced forces that have been unleashed by development and manipulation of the environment in the industrial age – the effects of urbanization and climate change are converging in dangerous ways. The results of this convergence threaten to have unprecedented negative impacts on quality of life, and economic and social stability” (UN HABITAT, 2011).

As climate change impacts unfold in Southern Africa, compounding the many challenges already faced by urban poor and working class populations, a new challenge is emerging on the urban food security frontier: How will climate change affect urban food availability, access and utilisation? This is a pertinent question to ask in Southern Africa at the moment because research by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) provides a startling picture of the devastating impact climate change is and will continue to have on sub-Saharan African agricultural productivity, and consequently components of food security, namely, availability, accessibility and utilisation. While food security is now less seen in terms of sufficient agricultural food production and more in terms of access and entitlement, the fact that food production is a route to entitlement either directly for food producers, or indirectly by driving market prices down for consumer’s remains. As a result, negative climate change effects on agricultural productivity imply reduced food availability with direct and indirect impacts on national and household food security. This is confirmed by assessments of impacts of climate change on agriculture based on various climate models and emission scenarios which estimate that by 2100, parts of Southern Africa are likely to experience agricultural losses of between 0.4% and 1.3% of GDP (Mendelsohn et al., 2000). Scenario projections point to climate change induced changes in the length of growing seasons and a decline in areas suitable for agriculture with direct effects on the quantity of yields, hence, food availability. Declining agricultural yields are also likely due to drought and the increased intensity of flooding (IPCC, 2007). Rising temperatures will compound the situation as they alter runoff patterns, increase evaporation rates severely affecting productivity. Some African countries could see agricultural yields decrease by 50% by 2050 and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100 (IPCC, Working Group II, Report 13). By the 2080s the area of arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares) with consequences on producing crops like wheat which are likely to disappear from Africa by the 2080s (IPCC, 2007). At the same time there will be notable reductions in maize production in Southern Africa (Stige et al., 2006). In South Africa, a recent study on the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity predicts that crop net revenues are likely to fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most severely affected (IPCC, 2007). Although these South African predictions paint a shocking scenario, it is likely that national and community level adaptation strategies will lessen the negative effects. However, that still does not substitute the fact that climate change impacts on agricultural productivity will severely affect food availability, accessibility and utilisation.

What Does Climate Change Mean For Food Security At The Urban-Scale?

At the urban-scale, reduced food production especially of staple food crops means reduced (or unstable) food supplies and food unavailability. While imports (other distribution mechanisms and safety nets) can potentially and partially cover such food gaps, evidence from across Southern Africa abounds on the ineptitude of some governments in instituting such interventions on time, if at all. Against that reality, exchange entitlement-driven urban food markets which are highly volatile to unstable, erratic food supplies will predictably respond through prices rises. Increased prices will make food unaffordable, especially by most working class and urban poor. The consequences of high food prices (although not climate related) were demonstrated in Mozambique in 2010 where thousands of urbanites violently rioted destroying property in response to unaffordable basic food commodities. Thus, there is a real and increased risk of climate change-induced urban food riots occurring in the future. Inevitably, food price increases will also lead to an alteration of food consumption patterns, either through changing dietary habits (eating fewer meals per day) or eating unbalanced diets of less nutritious foods. Such dietary adaptation strategies will have direct negative effects on human nutrition and health. For those who afford, expenditure on food will increase in proportion to price increases with accompanying erosion of disposable income for other household necessities. Furthermore, (from an indirect sense), a reduction in food production suggests direct impacts on jobs (agriculture linked) and associated incomes thereby curtailing such groups’ ability to access food and other basics. Another dimension relates to how climate change linked high and rising temperatures will impact food utilisation in urban settings. High temperatures will require food storage and safety techniques that can withstand adverse radiation. Current refrigeration systems are an obvious storage option, but, how many urban poor and working class in Duncan Village (East London), Kamanga (Lusaka), Mbare (Harare) own refrigerators? Their food storage and safety techniques are pressurised by current temperatures; hence increased temperatures can only worsen their plight. High temperatures will also mean perishable food products will have a short shelf life, thus requiring immediate consumption. This will affect food preservation and conservation strategies at household level since emergency rations will be eaten sooner than previously planned. Inevitably, such haphazard consumption patterns will affect household financial budgets. The effects of rising temperatures in conjunction with reduced food production will also mean preferred food products will not be ordinarily available in urban food markets. With limited choice in the urban food system, consumption of undesirable foods will be widespread.

Conclusion

And running the risk of sounding alarmist evidence based predictions clearly suggest that urban food availability, access and utilisation in Southern Africa will be affected by climate change. Climate science scenario projections are pointing that direction. With that knowledge, it is upon responsible governments in partnership with local communities, development agencies and climate science experts to begin to map out intervention and adaptation strategies. The time for those actions is now.

References: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 available at: www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html | Mendelsohn, R., A. Dinar and A. Dalfelt, (2000), Climate change impacts on African agriculture, Preliminary analysis prepared for the World Bank, World Bank: Washington | Stige, L.C., J. Stave, K.S. Chan, L. Ciannelli, N. Pretorelli, M. Glantz, H.R. Herren and N.C. Stenseth, (2006), ‘The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa’, P. Natl. Acad. Sci, 103, pp3049-3053 | UN Habitat, (2011), Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions, Global Report on Human Settlements 2011, London: Earthscan.