by Ronald Eglin

Peak oil is going to change the way we view the world. Oil is not just about petrol and diesel for transport – it affects just about everything. You name it and it’s probably got oil somewhere in its make-up, from plastic to rubber, nylon, aspirin, takkies and glue to CDs and lipstick.

You’ve probably heard about climate change, but peak oil could be new to you. If you think of cars,
climate change deals with what comes out of the exhaust; how these fumes cause greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere leading to global warming, changes in weather patterns and sea level rises.

Peak oil on the other hand deals with what goes into the tank. Some argue that peak oil will have a more immediate and direct impact on our lives compared to climate change as the price of what we put in our tanks has more of a direct impact on us than changes in climate that result from what comes out of our exhausts.   

Oil is made from pre-historic plankton and algae from 90 to 150 million years ago that sank to the bottom of the sea, was covered in sediment, buried deeper and heated under extreme geological pressures to form crude oil as we know it today. There is only a fixed amount of this oil that has been created this way, and some time in the future, we will use it up.

The key issue however is not when the last drop of oil is used, but rather the peak, or halfway point –when we have used up half of all the oil reserves.  When the production of oil reaches its peak and starts to drop from year to year.  More or less, from this point onwards, it becomes harder and harder to get the oil out of the ground.  It’s like picking fruit from a tree:  the first fruit is easy for you to pick from the ground, but the more you want, the harder it is to get.

In the past, if we needed more energy, oil producers could just pump more oil from the ground. We are now, however, reaching a point where we can only use what oil we can find.  Supply dictates demand: where suppliers of oil can ask a higher price for this oil as there is not enough for everyone who wants it; and consumers are prepared to pay more for it, otherwise they have to do without.

There is debate among “experts” as to the exact date when oil will peak. Most estimates place the peak between 2010 and 2015. (The transition handbook, from oil dependency to local resilience, Rob Hopkins, 2008, page 29).  The exact date is not important.  What is important is that the peak oil is happening. 

The concepts of climate change and peak oil both mean that we need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels like petrol, diesel and coal (although the peak for coal is decades into the future).

The South African government and public are not thinking seriously enough about how we are going to survive with increases in energy costs. None of our national development plans, such as the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative – South Africa (Asgisa), the National Industrial Policy Framework, and the National Spatial Development Perspective, take into account the fact that there is not an endless supply of cheap fossil fuels to fuel the growth of our economy.

Price increases for fossil fuels like oil affect the type of industries and lifestyles that are being promoted.  

For example, is it a  better to invest more in aluminium smelters in Coega or in smaller local economic development projects if the price of energy involved in manufacturing is rising; is it better to focus on exports or promote import substitution when transport costs will be increasing;  should we be supporting large scale commercial farming or more local organic farming practices when ‘artificial’ fertilizer, manufactured from oil, is increasing and transport costs to get the food to the consumer are rising; should we be supporting low density sprawl of our urban areas or high density mixed use development with their differing associated transport requirements; should we be re-capitalising our taxi industry or investing more in busses, trains and other forms of public transport?   These are just a few of the many questions we need to be addressing in light of peak oil.

How can we respond to peak oil? We could hope for a technological miracle, or we could carry on as usual.  Business as usual would lead to a fragmented world where those with money are able to survive and those without starve and suffer. We can’t rely on technology alone to solve the problem, and we don’t want a fragmented and collapsed society.

The sooner we can start to live a life with less oil the better. The best way to do this is not to frighten ourselves and others with doom and gloom about a future without oil – this would leave us paralysed and unable to do anything about it.

We need instead to see peak oil as an opportunity to develop a positive vision of a more local world, where the need for travel and use of oil is reduced. Such a world does not have to be a step backwards to a pre-industrial era, but rather a step forward into a more humane world.

We need to start planning for such a localised world through our long-term municipal development strategies and short- to medium-term Integrated Development Plans. The next time you meet your ward councillor, or attend a municipal meeting, ask your municipality to start planning for peak oil.

First published in The Transformer Vol. 14 No. 4 August - September 2008