By Nontando Guwa

High Court Judge Chris Nicholson’s judgement on Zuma’s legal battles and the subsequent ANC’s recalling of President Thabo Mbeki from office resulted in an unexpected crisis within South Africa’s ruling party. Many analysts have said this is a very interesting time of change in South African history and it is important to try to understand what it all means for the country.

In the past few months we have witnessed numerous changes within the ruling party and most of them started before the 2007 Polokwane conference. After the sacking of Zuma as second Deputy-President of the country following the conviction of Shabir Shaik, divisions started emerging within the ANC. In Polokwane these divisions became apparent with the block voting for Zuma and those considered his allies and the unseating of Mbeki and his supporters.

The atmosphere of hooliganism and abusive language mostly directed at Mbeki and his allies in Polokwane was a breeding ground for the creation of an opposition within the ANC. Despite all of this, the ANC sought to portray a unified front and downplayed the existence of different factions and internal power struggles. ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe repeatedly insisted that there were no divisions within the ANC.

Just after the ANC recalled Mbeki from office, former defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota and former Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa broke away from the ANC to form a new party. The support that this initiative received throughout the nine provinces appeared to catch the ANC by surprise. A national convention organised by the party organisers which was planned in Johannesburg for 4 000 delegates swelled to more than 6 000 delegates.

The new party is campaigning on:

• Defending the supremacy of the Constitution;
• Reforming the electoral system from proportional representation to a constituency-based system. This could result in South Africans directly electing their president;
• Restoration of the rule of law where ‘no citizen can be above the law’; and
• Fighting poverty.

Many have welcome the split and the weakening of the ANC, as the ruling ANC is perceived as too powerful, becoming complacent on account of its huge parliamentary majority. Opposition parties see this as a moment in which their fortunes may rise.

However the current split in the ANC may not necessarily mean larger spoils for the opposition. The ability of the ANC to control state resources will always position it to influence the socio-economic rewards of its voters and those dependent on its patronage.

The current period of uncertainty is that nobody really knows what voters are thinking. Everything is seemingly in a state of flux, as traditional assumptions about realignments may not remain valid. Since 1994 party politics have been static and electoral outcomes have not shown any major shifts given the racialised nature of our politics. The ANC’s dominance has up to now been virtually assured. However this dominance might be under serious threat.

Collette Schulz-Herzenberg, in a paper for the Centre for Social Science Research, argues that there is little or no shift of allegiance across party lines by racial and other social groups. Instead the strongest suggestion of electoral volatility lies in diminishing party loyalties for all parties and corresponding growth of a ‘floating’ or an independent electorate. Rather than voters moving their support to another political party, partisanship has simply declined.

At a local level, divisions in the ANC are having bad results. Some local municipalities are recalling mayors who are seen or thought to be Mbeki supporters. At a ward level, some ward councillors who are thought to be Mbeki supporters are being rejected. If the situation at this level is not properly monitored and controlled, it is bound to degenerate into acts of violence and intolerance come election time.

In a democracy, any individual or group has a right to choose which party to support without intimidation. Each party has a right to communicate its policies and ideas to the electorate so that on election day people can vote for whatever party they feel represents their cause best. This is not currently the case in South Africa. There is a high level of intolerance among political parties and their supporters. South Africans have already seen this in KwaZulu-Natal and other provinces.

Recently we have witnessed the ill-treatment of Mosiuoa Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa by senior ANC leaders including Zuma himself as the ANC president. These two men have been labelled as “snakes, dogs, imbeciles, etc.” This behaviour has unfortunately filtered down from senior ANC leadership to local branch members.

Whatever the outcomes of the coming elections, even if the ANC still wins, an opposition movement has been formed and it is competing for the same voters as the ANC. Therefore, the ruling party will have no choice but to deliver on their promises to the people if they want to secure and keep votes – which is ultimately good for our democracy.


First published in the Transformer Vol. 14 No. 6 / Dec 2008 - Jan 2009